15 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1367
FormWLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kowalczyk
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1365
FormLWLWL
50%
50%
🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (25)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 32% · 3.17· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H2-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.