15 Jul · 20:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Strus
ELO 1330
FormLLWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Fabis
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1403
FormWLWLL
42%
58%
🌟Strus goes over total as underdog 65% (23)
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+73
H2H34-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (34-16)