15 Jul · 20:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1394
FormWWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Trela
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Strus
ELO 1330
FormLLWLW
57%
43%
🌟Strus goes over total as underdog 65% (23)
Fair odds · Trela
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+64
H2H11-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)