15 Jul · 21:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1675
FormWWWWW
68%Win chancemodel fair 1.47Tkaczyk
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1507
FormWLWWW
68%
32%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 71% (28)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 68% · 1.47vsMarket 76% · 1.32· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 51%Total ~77 pts
3-1
26%
3-0
25%
3-2
17%
1-3
13%
2-3
12%
Elo Gap+168
H2H60-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+168)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (60-19)