15 Jul · 21:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1355
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kowalczyk
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Strus
ELO 1342
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Strus🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (25)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.31· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H36-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.