15 Jul · 22:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1394
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Trela
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1383
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
🌟Fabis covers set handicap as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Trela
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~81 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H10-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.