15 Jul · 23:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MW
🇵🇱Miroslaw Warzecha
ELO 1658
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1676
FormLWWWW
48%
52%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 71% (28)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H14-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.