15 Jul · 23:55 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
AB
🇵🇱Aleksander Barton
ELO 1181
FormLLLLL
81%Win chancemodel fair 1.23Machelski
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1505
FormLWWLW
19%
81%
🌟Barton stays under total as underdog 70% (37)
Fair odds · Machelski
Model 81% · 1.23vsMarket 75% · 1.34· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 68%Total ~74 pts
0-3
40%
1-3
28%
2-3
12%
3-2
9%
3-1
7%
Elo Gap+324
H2H14-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+324)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-2)