15 Jul · 23:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1394
FormWLWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Trela
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1312
FormLLLLL
59%
41%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 70% (20)
Fair odds · Trela
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~80 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+82
H2H53-48
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (53-48)