16 Jul · 01:30 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1686
FormWWLWW
69%Win chancemodel fair 1.45Tkaczyk
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1508
FormWLWWL
69%
31%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 71% (28)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 69% · 1.45vsMarket 72% · 1.39· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 52%Total ~76 pts
3-1
27%
3-0
25%
3-2
17%
1-3
12%
2-3
11%
Elo Gap+178
H2H60-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+178)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (60-20)