16 Jul · 01:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1472
FormWLLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1539
FormLWWLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+67
H2H23-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-13)