16 Jul · 03:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1403
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Trela
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1384
FormWLLWW
52%
48%
🌟Fabis covers set handicap as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Trela
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H11-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.