16 Jul · 06:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1388
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mecik
PM
🇵🇱Patryk Mecik
ELO 1415
FormWLLWL
47%
53%
🌟Kaczmarek covers set handicap as underdog 78% (18)
Fair odds · Mecik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H7-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.