16 Jul · 05:55 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
AB
🇵🇱Aleksander Barton
ELO 1196
FormWLWLL
80%Win chancemodel fair 1.25Machelski
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1510
FormWLLWW
20%
80%
🌟Barton stays under total as underdog 70% (37)
Fair odds · Machelski
Model 80% · 1.25vsMarket 67% · 1.49· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 68%Total ~73 pts
0-3
40%
1-3
28%
2-3
12%
3-2
9%
3-1
7%
Elo Gap+314
H2H15-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+314)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-2)