16 Jul · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1652
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Wloczko
KW
🇵🇱Krzysztof Wloczko
ELO 1688
FormWWWLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Wloczko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H42-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.