16 Jul · 07:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1413
FormWLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sulkowski
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1416
FormLWLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H10-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.