16 Jul · 07:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1461
FormWLLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1546
FormWWLWL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~80 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+85
H2H24-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+85)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-13)