16 Jul · 10:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1425
FormLLWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Schaniel
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1501
FormWLWWL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+76
H2H11-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)