16 Jul · 11:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1501
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Brozek
PB
🇵🇱Piotr Brozek
ELO 1506
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
🌟Schaniel goes over total as underdog 68% (22)
Fair odds · Brozek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.