16 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1551
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mitas
JM
🇵🇱Jacek Mitas
ELO 1562
FormWLWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Mitas
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.