16 Jul · 13:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PB
🇵🇱Piotr Brozek
ELO 1485
FormLLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Schaniel
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1499
FormWLWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.