16 Jul · 15:55 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1500
FormWWLLL
63%Win chancemodel fair 1.59Lilien
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1381
FormLLLWL
63%
37%
🌟Sulkowski covers set handicap as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 63% · 1.59vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 47%Total ~77 pts
3-1
24%
3-0
23%
3-2
16%
1-3
15%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+119
H2H18-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+119)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-14)