16 Jul · 16:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JG
🇵🇱Jakub Glanowski
ELO 1565
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mitas
JM
🇵🇱Jacek Mitas
ELO 1581
FormWWWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Glanowski🌟Glanowski covers set handicap as underdog 76% (29)
Fair odds · Mitas
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.