16 Jul · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1402
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Skorski
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1361
FormWLWLW
54%
46%
🌟Kowalczyk covers set handicap as underdog 70% (37)
Fair odds · Skorski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+41
H2H13-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.