16 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1366
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kowalczyk
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1334
FormLWWWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (25)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H27-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.