16 Jul · 20:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DS
🇵🇱Dariusz Szlubowski
ELO 1437
FormLLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Szlubowski
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1382
FormWWWLL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rolak🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Szlubowski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H12-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-1)