17 Jul · 00:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1347
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Rolak
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1367
FormLLLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Rolak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (24)
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H16-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.