17 Jul · 00:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1391
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Skorski
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1379
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Skorski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 76% · 1.31· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H10-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.