17 Jul · 01:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1561
FormWWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Adamus
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1508
FormLLWLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+53
H2H27-23
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (27-23)