17 Jul · 05:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MC
🇵🇱Milosz Cesarz
ELO 1298
FormWWWLL
72%Win chancemodel fair 1.39Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1516
FormWLLWL
28%
72%
🌟Cesarz goes over total as underdog 69% (29)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 72% · 1.39vsMarket 79% · 1.26· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 57%Total ~77 pts
0-3
31%
1-3
26%
2-3
15%
3-2
12%
3-1
10%
Elo Gap+218
H2H23-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+218)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-2)