17 Jul · 04:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1490
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1521
FormWWLLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H5-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.