17 Jul · 07:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1445
FormWLLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1529
FormWWWWL
41%
59%
🌟Paszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 92% (13)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+84
H2H23-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-15)