17 Jul · 08:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JO
🇵🇱Jan Orszulik
ELO 1456
FormLLWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Orszulik
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1376
FormLLWLL
59%
41%
🌟Kaczmarek covers set handicap as underdog 78% (18)
Fair odds · Orszulik
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~80 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+80
H2H6-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+80)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-2)