17 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1461
FormWWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Orszulik
JO
🇵🇱Jan Orszulik
ELO 1463
FormWLLWW
50%
50%
🌟Paszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 92% (13)
Fair odds · Orszulik
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.