17 Jul · 09:35 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1369
FormLLLWL
67%Win chancemodel fair 1.49Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1526
FormLWWWW
33%
67%
🌟Kaczmarek covers set handicap as underdog 78% (18)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 67% · 1.49vsMarket 73% · 1.38· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 50%Total ~79 pts
1-3
26%
0-3
24%
2-3
16%
3-1
13%
3-2
12%
Elo Gap+157
H2H51-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+157)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (51-18)