17 Jul · 10:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1490
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1526
FormLWWWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H6-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.