17 Jul · 10:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MC
🇵🇱Milosz Cesarz
ELO 1295
FormLWLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kaczmarek
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1364
FormLLLLW
43%
57%
🌟Kaczmarek goes over total as favourite 69% (13)
Fair odds · Kaczmarek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~81 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+69
H2H35-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (35-11)