17 Jul · 12:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1410
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sulkowski
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1378
FormWLLWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H8-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.