17 Jul · 13:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1415
FormWLWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1486
FormLLWWW
42%
58%
🌟Sulkowski goes over total as underdog 75% (20)
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+71
H2H17-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-13)