17 Jul · 14:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1615
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Skotniczny
GW
🇵🇱Grzegorz Wichowski
ELO 1581
FormLLWLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Skotniczny
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H42-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.