17 Jul · 14:40 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1368
FormLLWLL
63%Win chancemodel fair 1.59Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1486
FormLLWWW
37%
63%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 63% · 1.59vsMarket 76% · 1.31· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 47%Total ~79 pts
1-3
24%
0-3
23%
2-3
15%
3-1
15%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+118
H2H16-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+118)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-11)