17 Jul · 18:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1349
FormLLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1351
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (25)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H10-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.