17 Jul · 19:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jadach
ELO 1543
FormLLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Jadach
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1483
FormLLLWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Jadach
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H14-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-6)