18 Jul · 00:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1329
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Piecowski
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1342
FormWLLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Piecowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H1-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.