18 Jul · 01:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RW
🇵🇱Roman Wiza
ELO 1336
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Fira
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1361
FormWLLLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Fira
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H42-42
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.