18 Jul · 00:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1561
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pawlik
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jedrzejowski
ELO 1556
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H4-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.