18 Jul · 09:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1394
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Wozniak
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Wozniak
ELO 1413
FormWLLLW
48%
52%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Wozniak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.