18 Jul · 10:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1516
FormLLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kolek
MK
🇵🇱Maciej Kolek
ELO 1564
FormLWWWL
45%
55%
🌟Kolek goes over total as favourite 75% (24)
Fair odds · Kolek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+48
H2H17-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-14)