18 Jul · 13:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1377
FormLLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Michalczyk
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalczyk
ELO 1448
FormWWLWW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Michalczyk
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+71
H2H0-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)