18 Jul · 12:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SW
🇵🇱Stanislaw Wnek
ELO 1387
FormWWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Wozniak
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Wozniak
ELO 1410
FormLWWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Wozniak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.